There’s a brain teaser involving planes during World War II. The English sent planes on bombing missions to Germany, but not all of them made it back. The ones that did make it back had bullet holes from enemy attacks. To make the planes safer, engineers decided to study where the bullet holes were and add extra armor there.
Thanks, Paul, for the great examples and the metaphor of the planes. Very informative and helpful article. And I can think of a number of Substacks that are fan favorites, but (in my mind) utterly puerile. Many that are terrific, but with few followers. Success is subjective.
So true, Paul, of Substack writers sharing their success stories. The Substack publications that succeed have a few key ingredients in common, but are often vastly different. The ones that fail have a thousand different traits (and perhaps less well-armoured fuselages)?
Thanks, Paul, for the great examples and the metaphor of the planes. Very informative and helpful article. And I can think of a number of Substacks that are fan favorites, but (in my mind) utterly puerile. Many that are terrific, but with few followers. Success is subjective.
So true, Paul, of Substack writers sharing their success stories. The Substack publications that succeed have a few key ingredients in common, but are often vastly different. The ones that fail have a thousand different traits (and perhaps less well-armoured fuselages)?
I’m so glad you wrote on this, Paul! I only just recently learned about this phenomenon myself, from Jono Hey and his awesome site Sketchplanations…
https://sketchplanations.com/survivorship-bias-silent-evidence
We’re missing the most instructive bits by only looking at the markers for success v. failure. TRUTH!!
Those are some serious bullet holes! Keep playing that guitar!
Great article! I watched a YouTube video recently by Mary Spender talking about a similar angle on being an independent musician today, v interesting…
https://youtu.be/E36Ku6MvaFY?si=ocAsWM8mQ-scEngM