Survivorship Bias

There’s a brain teaser involving planes during World War II. The English sent planes on bombing missions to Germany, but not all of them made it back. The ones that did make it back had bullet holes from enemy attacks.

To make the planes safer, engineers decided to study where the bullet holes were and add extra armor there. They found that bullets mostly hit the wings, tail, and the back gunner's area. Surprisingly, there were fewer bullet holes in the main cockpit or fuel tanks.

So, they thought, “let's add armor where the bullets hit the most”.

But here's the twist: the planes with bullet holes in the cockpit or fuel tanks didn't survive. The bullet holes in the returning planes were in less critical areas. So, adding armor to where the holes were found might not actually make the planes safer.

This situation is an example of 'survivor bias.' It means making conclusions based only on the data you have, not considering the whole picture. It's like saying, “Let's learn from the planes that made it back,” but forgetting about the ones that didn't.

Now, think about marketing or business advice. We often hear about successful campaigns and companies, but what about the ones that failed? Could there be valuable lessons in failure, just like the planes that didn't make it back? We should look at both success and failure to learn the full story. But who writes the stories about how they failed?

1. Business Success Stories: Imagine if you only studied companies that became super successful, like Apple or Google. Trying to copy their strategies without looking at the companies that failed might not give you the full picture of what works in business.

2. College Dropouts: You often hear about successful people. - like Steve Jobs, Mark Zuckerberg, and Dick Cheney, (and many more) who dropped out of college and did great. But for every success story, there are many others who dropped out and didn't become famous or wealthy. It's not a guaranteed path to success.

3. Investment Gurus: Just because some people made a lot of money in the stock market doesn't mean it's easy for everyone. Many others lose money, but we don't hear about them as much. (wallstreetbets), (Rich Dad, Poor Dad), (Think and Grow Rich), (Con Artist Investment Gurus), and so on…

   

   Wall Street Bets was a popular SubReddit until it wasn’t

4. Celebrity Endorsements: When celebrities promote a product, it doesn't mean it's always the best. For every successful endorsement, there are others that didn't work out. Just because a famous person says something doesn't make it true. Tom Brady, Larry David, Giselle Bundchen, Steph Curry, Shaquille O’Neal, Gwyneth Paltrow, Madonna, Justin Bieber, Serena Williams, Jimmy Fallon and more.

5. Health and Fitness Testimonials: Seeing someone lose a lot of weight or get super fit is cool, but not every diet or workout plan works for everyone. Some people might not get the same results. (Like Dr. Oz)

6. Survival of Diseases: People who beat serious illnesses are heroes, but not everyone does. It's essential to understand that some diseases can be really tough, and not everyone gets better. Google is full of titles like “Mexican cancer clinics accused of quackery.“

7. Military Training: Soldiers who complete tough training are admirable, but not everyone can do it. It's not like a video game where everyone succeeds. Some people find it very challenging. Think Jocko Willink.

8. Social Media Influencers: Some people get famous and make money on social media, but very few who try becomes an influencer. It's like trying to win the lottery – only a few people make it big. But who would read an article about the YouTuber who has 87 subscribers and just 10 views per video?

9. Musical Talent Shows: Winning a singing competition is fantastic, but many talented singers don't win. Success in music is not just about winning contests; there are many different paths to a music career. The winners of the first 18 Americas Got Talent seasons is a list of people that not many have ever heard of. Except if they watched the season finale that year. A few are still playing and recording, a couple have (had) a residency in Vegas, and some still record and release albums, and some have faded away into obscurity.

10. Learning a New Skill: Imagine learning to play the guitar. Seeing someone play amazingly doesn't mean everyone learns that quickly. It takes time and practice, and not everyone becomes a rock star. I have been playing guitar since I was in my teens. I still practice more than I play. :(

11. Getting into a Dream College: Hearing about someone who got into their dream college is great, but not everyone gets accepted. There are many factors involved, and it's normal to face rejection. See: Varsity Blues scandal

12. Winning a Lottery: Often called a tax for the mathematically challenged. It’s also not a good retirement plan. People who win the lottery become rich overnight, but it's extremely rare. Most people who play the lottery don't win the big prize, and it's not a reliable way to get rich. Some however do win big and contrary to popular belief, studies show that jackpot winners report improved life satisfaction and don’t usually blow through their newfound wealth.

13. Social Relationships: When you see happy couples on TV entertainment shows, it's important to know that not every relationship is perfect. People often share the good parts, but everyone faces challenges in their relationships. Here are a ton of famous 2023 split-ups.

Think about the social media gurus, and the Substack stars – those people who seem to have it all figured out online. They share tips, sell courses on how to gain followers, get likes, (guilty) and become internet famous. They often talk about their success stories and how they made it big. And a lot is well deserved. It must be said that the system feeds itself. You know that graphic of the snake eating its own tail?

Now, let's consider survivor bias in this context. These social gurus might tell you the secrets to their success, but what about the many others who tried the same things and didn't become internet famous? That’s me! We try our best, and that’s good enough.

But just like the planes in the World War II story, there are many who didn't 'make it back' to the social media world. They tried the strategies, but for various reasons, it didn't work out the same way. It’s OK to not have it all.